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IERS Message No. 167                                       July 19, 2010
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Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project


Call for Participation

The International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS)
would like to invite you to participate in the Earth Orientation
Parameter Combination of Prediction Pilot Project. This pilot project is
designed to determine the feasibility and benefits of combining EOP
predictions on a daily basis.

The concept of combining predictions (or ensemble predictions) has been
used in other fields for a number of years. Ensemble predictions make
use of sampling the "prediction space" by using various algorithms and
potentially different, but still likely, initial conditions.
By producing different predictions and combining the results, these
ensemble predictions are more accurate than the results from individual
predictions.

It is a logical extension to consider the viability of ensemble
predictions for Earth orientation parameters.
Theoretically, ensemble predictions can improve both the accuracy and
the robustness of predictions. This concept has been proposed, tested
and the initial results look promising enough that a pilot project is
being initiated.

Participants will be asked to provide either of two (or if they desire,
both) significant components to this pilot project.

1. Participants can provide daily EOP predictions (at least one of PM-x,
   PM-y, UT1-UTC, dX, dY). Realizing that different methods are
   optimized for different forecast intervals, predictions of any length
   from 1 day to at least 90 days made using any choice of prediction
   algorithm and input data will be accepted. These predictions should
   be made daily and placed in an accessible area on a machine local to
   the participant.

2. Participants can provide ensemble predictions using the contributed
   prediction series as input. The ensemble prediction series should be
   provided daily and the data should be given for every day out to at
   least 90 days in the future. These ensemble predictions should be
   made available on an accessible area on machines local to the
   ensemble prediction generators.

If interested in participating, provide a brief letter of intent to
Brian Luzum (brian.luzum@usno.navy.mil). Additional information can be
found on the pilot project web site at

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/eopcppp/eopcppp.html


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